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The full Cotton Pest DSS rule base, exposed. Change any field value or any coefficient in the equation, generate a result, and see the risk tier and the NCIPM/CIBRC pesticide recommendation it produces — with every step of the arithmetic shown.

Pectinophora gossypiella · bollworm
→ Boll formation & development (81–120 DAS)
GerminationVegetativeSquare formationFloweringBoll formation & developmentMaturity / boll opening
Blank → DAS × daily GDD
Published: 10 % infested bolls
RULE CS-1/CS-2

ETL in force: ≥10% infested bolls (master sheet states 5–15% boll damage) [MS] rows 9–10

Result

Pink Bollworm

HIGH
82%Risk_final · Boll formation & development · 95 DAS

CLS-1 — apply recommended pesticide within 24–48 hrs.

Derivation

Equation trace

Risk_base = 0.40·Ws + 0.44·Fp + 0.16·Cs= 0.40×0.850 + 0.44×0.900 + 0.16×0.90= 0.880

Basis: observation — a scouting count exists, so the published 40:44:16 composite applies.

  • OFF-SEA1 — month 8 sits outside the Oct–Dec window and its shoulder: −0.06
Risk_final = CLIP(…, 0, 1) = 0.820 → HIGH
RULE WS-1 / WS-2

Weather suitability

Ws = 0.850
ParameterValueBandRangeScore
Tmax (°C)35high≥ 349
Tmin (°C)23high≥ 229
RH (%)72high≥ 709
GDD (°C cumulative)1273high≥ 11009
DAS95high≥ 909
Rainfall (mm/week)30moderate10 – 505.5
Wind speed (km/h)5high< 69
Σ / 7 / 100.850
RULE FP-1/2 · CS-1/2

Field pressure & stage susceptibility

Observed count9
ETL in force10 % infested bolls
Fp raw (uncapped)0.900
Fp (capped at 1)0.900
Cs labelH
Cs value0.90
Recommendation

Control action

chemical
Quinalphos 20% AForganophosphate · IRAC 1B
Dose1750–2500 ml/ha
Dilution750–1000 L/ha
Spectrumbroad
[RX] Annexure IX, CIBRC 2013 block I

Alternatives (rotation candidates)

ProductMoADoseDilution
Thiodicarb 75% WPcarbamate1000 g/ha500 L/ha
Chlorpyrifos 50% + Cypermethrin 5% ECorganophosphate1000 ml/ha500–1000 L/ha

Organic / biological options

ProductDoseDilution
Azadirachtin 0.15% W/W Neem Seed Kernel Based EC (NSKE 5%)2500–5000 ml/ha500–1000 L water/ha
Azadirachtin 0.03% (300 ppm) Neem Oil Based WSP2500–5000 ml/ha500–1000 L water/ha
Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki 5% WP750–1000 g/ha500–1000 L water/ha
  • RX-PBW1: before 120 DAS use the Thiodicarb/Chlorpyrifos class, not pyrethroids.
  • [MS] chemical recommendation at this stage: Synthetic pyrethroids (after 120 DAS).

Excluded candidates

  • Cypermethrin 10% EC — RX-PBW1 — synthetic pyrethroids only after 120 DAS
  • Fenpropathrin 30% EC — RX-PBW1 — synthetic pyrethroids only after 120 DAS

Doses are transcribed from NCIPM Annexure-IX (CIBRC 2013). Verify against the current product label and local recommendation before any field use.

NCIPM reference

ETL, recording & stage IPM

Canonical ETL: More than 8 moths/trap per night for 3 consecutive nights or more than 10% infested flowers or bolls with live larvae [ETL] p.25 item 8

Monitoring at this stage: Destructive boll sampling (100/120/135 DAS, 20 green bolls)

Organic practice: Sanitation, destroy infested bolls

Peak flowering & fruiting stage (80–120 days) — stage-wise IPM

Whitefly
  • Use yellow sticky trap for monitoring
  • Spray recommended insecticides
Bollworms
  • Use pheromone traps @ 5 traps/ha
  • Physical collection & destruction of grown-up larvae
  • Use HaNPV 0.43% AS @ 2700 ml/ha
  • Removal of terminals (topping) at times of high Helicoverpa oviposition
  • Follow IRM strategies
Spodoptera
  • Pheromone traps @ 5 traps/ha
  • Sow castor seeds at field borders as indicator cum trap crop
  • Hand collection & destruction of egg masses and early instar gregarious larvae
  • Spray recommended insecticides

Diagnostic symptoms

  • Pink larvae inside developing bolls with inter-locular movement
  • Rosetted bloom (rosette flowers)
  • Premature boll opening, seed damage and lint discolouration
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Change any input or coefficient above, then press Run & log experiment to capture the field values and the result side by side.

Rule base: Cotton_DSS_V2 §1–§8 · ETL and recording protocol: NCIPM Annexure-I/II · injury grades: Annexure-III/IV · pesticides: NCIPM Annexure-IX (CIBRC 2013) · stage IPM: NCIPM §13. This is a modelling sandbox for exploring the rule base, not a field prescription.